Tag Archives: time

9 Agile Estimation Techniques

Many people have used a variation of Planning Poker to do Agile estimation.  Here is a reference of 9 different Agile estimation techniques for different circumstances.  I have seen all of these techniques work in practice, except one.  Try a new one each Sprint!

Planning Poker

Participants use specially-numbered playing cards to vote for an estimate of an item.  Voting repeats with discussion until all votes are unanimous.  There are lots of minor variations on Planning Poker.  Good technique to estimate a very small number of items (2 to 10).

The Bucket System

Using the same sequence as Planning Poker, a group or a team estimate items by placing them in “buckets”.  The Bucket System is a much faster Agile estimation technique than Planning Poker because there is a “divide-and-conquer” phase.  The Bucket System can also be used with larger groups than Planning Poker and with very large numbers of items to be estimated (50 to 500).

Big/Uncertain/Small

For super-fast Agile estimation, the items to be estimated are simply placed by the group in one of three categories: big, uncertain and small.  The group starts by discussing a few together, and then, like the Bucket System, uses divide-and-conquer to go through the rest of the items.

TFB / NFC / 1 (Sprint)

This Agile estimation technique is similar to Big/Uncertain/Small but puts a specific “size” into the mix, namely 1 Sprint.  The categories are “Too F-ing Big”, “No F-ing Clue” and “1” Sprint (or less).  I learned this one recently from someone in one of my CSPO classes.

Dot Voting

Dot voting is usually considered a decision-making tool, not an Agile estimation technique.  However, for estimating small numbers of items, dot voting can be a super-simple and effective technique.  Each person gets a small number of “dots” and uses them as votes to indicate the size of an item; more dots means bigger.

T-Shirt Sizes

Items are categorized into t-shirt sizes: XS, S, M, L, XL.  The sizes can, if needed, be given numerical values after the estimation is done.  This is a very informal technique, and can be used quickly with a large number of items.  Usually, the decisions about the size are based on open, collaborative discussion, possibly with the occasional vote to break a stalemate.  There is a brief description of T-Shirt Sizes here.

Affinity Mapping

Items are grouped by similarity – where similarity is some dimension that needs to be estimated.  This is usually a very physical activity and requires a relatively small number of items (20 to 50 is a pretty good range).  The groupings are then associated with numerical estimates if desired.

Ordering Protocol

Items are placed in a random order on a scale labeled simply “low” to “high”.  Each person participating takes turns making a “move”.  A move involves one of the following actions: change the position of an item by one spot lower or one spot higher, talking about an item, or passing.  If everyone passes, the ordering is done.  The Challenge, Estimate, Override and the Relative Mass Valuation methods are variations on the ordering protocol.

Divide until Maximum Size or Less

The group decides on a maximum size for items (e.g. 1 person-day of effort).  Each item is discussed to determine if it is already that size or less.  If the item is larger than the maximum size, then the group breaks the item into sub-items and repeats the process with the sub-items.  This continues until all items are in the allowed size range.

Principles of Agile Estimation

Agile estimation techniques are collaborative.  All appropriate people are included in the process.  For example the whole Scrum team participates in estimating effort of Product Backlog Items.  Collaborative techniques are also designed so that it is impossible to blame someone for an incorrect estimate: there is no way to trace who estimated what.

Agile estimation techniques are designed to be fast (-er than traditional techniques) and deliberately trade off accuracy.  We are not trying to learn to predict the future… or get better at estimation. Instead, we recognize that estimation is a non-value added activity and minimize it as much as possible.

Most Agile estimation techniques use relative units.  This means that we don’t try to estimate dollars or days directly.  Instead, we use “points” or even qualitative labels and simply compare the items we are estimating to each other.  This takes advantage of the human capacity to compare things to each other and avoids our difficulty in comparing something to an abstract concept (such as dollars or days).

Check out my recent “Agile Planning in a Nutshell” article.

What Other Agile Estimation Methods Are There?  Please let me know in the comments and feel free to include a link!


Affiliated Promotions:

Try our automated online Scrum coach: Scrum Insight - free scores and basic advice, upgrade to get in-depth insight for your team. It takes between 8 and 11 minutes for each team member to fill in the survey, and your results are available immediately. Try it in your next retrospective.

Please share!
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmailFacebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

Change is Natural – “Embrace Change”

Kent Beck’s book “Extreme Programming Explained : Embrace Change” provides a good introduction to how software development can embrace the constant change that affects our world. Some of the practices he introduces are very software-specific. However, the overall basic message is sound and provides a foundational principle for all agile work. (By the way, the book is excellent.)

Change really does occur everywhere. Change is constant. A google search for “embrace change” or “change is constant” will both turn up an incredible variety of articles, papers, discussions, books and viewpoints that all affirm the constant nature of change and the need to embrace it.

Nevertheless, it is sometimes difficult to accomodate change when we also have a legitimate and deep desire to know what is coming next.

For many teams, the environment in which they work is constantly changing. This change can be caused by competition between organizations, scientific or technological advances, fads and cultural shifts, major events in people’s personal lives or even just a change of opinion with a stakeholder. Any change, even small change, can invalidate a planned course of action. However, goals (as distinct from plans) are more stable and often survive even major environmental changes. Therefore, rather than trying to plan the future, an agile team can focus on being able to respond to change while still reaching a goal.

Nevertheless, a team needs some sense of what it will do in the near future. A team can work with a “horizon of predictability”. This is the distance into the future which a team can be reasonably certain that plans will be stable. Depending on the environment, this may be as little as a few minutes, or as long as a month. It is rarely longer. The horizon of predictability is not a precise demarcation, rather, expect change with a probability based on the horizon of predictability. Then, plan to respond to change. Be detached from the concrete details of a plan, particularly if they occur outside the horizon of predictability.

Agile Work - Horizon of Predictability

Responding to change requires a major mental shift for many people that is difficult and takes time and environmental support. People are often penalized socially or formally for being flexible or adaptable. This quality can appear to be “wishy-washy”, uncertain, indecisive, uncommitted or even rebellious.

The terms “agility” or “agile work” refer to this principle of embracing constant change since it is the most visible of the principles. However, the ability to respond to change relies on the establishment of agile work disciplines and practices.


Affiliated Promotions:

Try our automated online Scrum coach: Scrum Insight - free scores and basic advice, upgrade to get in-depth insight for your team. It takes between 8 and 11 minutes for each team member to fill in the survey, and your results are available immediately. Try it in your next retrospective.

Please share!
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmailFacebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail
Berteig
Upcoming Courses
View Full Course Schedule
Coach Skills for the Agile Workplace®
Toronto
C$2018.00
Sep 16
2019
Details
Certified Scrum Product Owner® (CSPO)
Toronto
C$1795.00
Sep 18
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1599.00
Sep 20
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1595.00
Sep 24
2019
Details
Certified Scrum@Scale Practitioner® (CSaSP) - Weekend Class!
Toronto
C$1995.00
Sep 28
2019
Details
Leading SAFe® with SA Certification (+FREE Scaling Workshop)
Toronto
C$1395.00
Oct 1
2019
Details
Professional Scrum Master® (PSM)
Toronto
C$1495.00
Oct 3
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (ACSM)
Online
C$1599.00
Oct 4
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1595.00
Oct 8
2019
Details
BERTEIG Real Agility Series Webinar: Problem Solving for an Agile Environment
WEBINAR
C$0.00
Oct 11
2019
Details
Certified Scrum Product Owner® (CSPO)
Toronto
C$1525.75
Oct 15
2019
Details
BERTEIG Licensed Scrum Master® (LSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Oct 16
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Oct 22
2019
Details
Kanban System Design® (KMP I)
Toronto
C$1525.75
Oct 24
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Oct 25
2019
Details
Team Kanban Practitioner® (TKP)
Toronto
C$1015.75
Oct 28
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Nov 1
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Nov 6
2019
Details
Certified Agile Leadership® (CAL1)
Toronto
C$2200.00
Nov 7
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Nov 19
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Nov 22
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
London
C$1525.75
Nov 22
2019
Details
Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster® (CSPSM)
Online
C$1869.15
Nov 22
2019
Details
Professional Scrum Master® (PSM I) [PSF Courseware]
London
C$1495.00
Nov 25
2019
Details
Certified Scrum Product Owner® (CSPO)
Toronto
C$1525.75
Nov 26
2019
Details
BERTEIG Licensed Scrum Master® (LSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Nov 27
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Nov 29
2019
Details
Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM)
Toronto
C$1355.75
Dec 3
2019
Details
Kanban Management Professional® (KMP II)
Toronto
C$1525.75
Dec 5
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Dec 6
2019
Details
Team Kanban Practitioner® (TKP)
Toronto
C$1015.75
Dec 10
2019
Details
Professional Scrum Master® (PSM I)
Toronto
C$1270.75
Dec 10
2019
Details
Kanban System Design® (KMP I)
Toronto
C$1525.75
Dec 11
2019
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Feb 1
2020
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Mar 7
2020
Details
Advanced Certified ScrumMaster® (A-CSM)
Online
C$1359.15
Mar 21
2020
Details