# 9 Agile Estimation Techniques

Many people have used a variation of Planning Poker to do Agile estimation.  Here is a reference of 9 different Agile estimation techniques for different circumstances.  I have seen all of these techniques work in practice, except one.  Try a new one each Sprint!

Planning Poker

Participants use specially-numbered playing cards to vote for an estimate of an item.  Voting repeats with discussion until all votes are unanimous.  There are lots of minor variations on Planning Poker.  Good technique to estimate a very small number of items (2 to 10).

The Bucket System

Using the same sequence as Planning Poker, a group or a team estimate items by placing them in “buckets”.  The Bucket System is a much faster Agile estimation technique than Planning Poker because there is a “divide-and-conquer” phase.  The Bucket System can also be used with larger groups than Planning Poker and with very large numbers of items to be estimated (50 to 500).

Big/Uncertain/Small

For super-fast Agile estimation, the items to be estimated are simply placed by the group in one of three categories: big, uncertain and small.  The group starts by discussing a few together, and then, like the Bucket System, uses divide-and-conquer to go through the rest of the items.

TFB / NFC / 1 (Sprint)

This Agile estimation technique is similar to Big/Uncertain/Small but puts a specific “size” into the mix, namely 1 Sprint.  The categories are “Too F-ing Big”, “No F-ing Clue” and “1” Sprint (or less).  I learned this one recently from someone in one of my CSPO classes.

Dot Voting

Dot voting is usually considered a decision-making tool, not an Agile estimation technique.  However, for estimating small numbers of items, dot voting can be a super-simple and effective technique.  Each person gets a small number of “dots” and uses them as votes to indicate the size of an item; more dots means bigger.

T-Shirt Sizes

Items are categorized into t-shirt sizes: XS, S, M, L, XL.  The sizes can, if needed, be given numerical values after the estimation is done.  This is a very informal technique, and can be used quickly with a large number of items.  Usually, the decisions about the size are based on open, collaborative discussion, possibly with the occasional vote to break a stalemate.  There is a brief description of T-Shirt Sizes here.

Affinity Mapping

Items are grouped by similarity – where similarity is some dimension that needs to be estimated.  This is usually a very physical activity and requires a relatively small number of items (20 to 50 is a pretty good range).  The groupings are then associated with numerical estimates if desired.

Ordering Protocol

Items are placed in a random order on a scale labeled simply “low” to “high”.  Each person participating takes turns making a “move”.  A move involves one of the following actions: change the position of an item by one spot lower or one spot higher, talking about an item, or passing.  If everyone passes, the ordering is done.  The Challenge, Estimate, Override and the Relative Mass Valuation methods are variations on the ordering protocol.

Divide until Maximum Size or Less

The group decides on a maximum size for items (e.g. 1 person-day of effort).  Each item is discussed to determine if it is already that size or less.  If the item is larger than the maximum size, then the group breaks the item into sub-items and repeats the process with the sub-items.  This continues until all items are in the allowed size range.

## Principles of Agile Estimation

Agile estimation techniques are collaborative.  All appropriate people are included in the process.  For example the whole Scrum team participates in estimating effort of Product Backlog Items.  Collaborative techniques are also designed so that it is impossible to blame someone for an incorrect estimate: there is no way to trace who estimated what.

Agile estimation techniques are designed to be fast (-er than traditional techniques) and deliberately trade off accuracy.  We are not trying to learn to predict the future… or get better at estimation. Instead, we recognize that estimation is a non-value added activity and minimize it as much as possible.

Most Agile estimation techniques use relative units.  This means that we don’t try to estimate dollars or days directly.  Instead, we use “points” or even qualitative labels and simply compare the items we are estimating to each other.  This takes advantage of the human capacity to compare things to each other and avoids our difficulty in comparing something to an abstract concept (such as dollars or days).

Check out my recent “Agile Planning in a Nutshell” article.

What Other Agile Estimation Methods Are There?  Please let me know in the comments and feel free to include a link!

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# The Agile Manifesto – Essay 2: Individuals and Interactions over Processes and Tools

This value is the hardest to do well.

In IT and high-tech, there is a “natural” prevailing culture that makes this first value incredibly difficult.  This difficulty is rooted in traditional “scientific management“, but made even more so by a critical additional factor that is mostly invisible: techies solve problems with tools.

Management wants to define processes with clearly described activities, clear inputs and outputs, and clear sources and recipients of the activity (see the description of SIPOC for an explanation of this thinking).  Techies build tools to automate these well-defined processes to improve their efficiency, quality and reliability.

Management creates organizational roles with detailed descriptions, detailed goals and detailed performance measurements (see the description of RACI for an explanation of this thinking).  Techies build tools to carefully constrain people to these detailed roles to improve efficiency, quality and reliability.

Management has money.  Techies want some of that money.  So they build the tools to help management get what they really want: a completely automated organization of computers, machines and robots.

The culture of technology is to solve problems with individuals and interactions by introducing processes and tools.  The culture of technology is (almost) inherently anti-Agile.

The culture of technology is to solve problems with individuals and interactions by introducing processes and tools.  The culture of technology is (almost) inherently anti-Agile.

Individuals and Interactions

Let’s look at the first part of this value in a bit more depth.  When we think about work, most of us work with other people.  We bring our unique skills, personality and interests to work, and we work with other people who also bring unique skills, personality and interests.  In a high-bureaucracy, high-technology work environment, it is easy to forget about all this uniqueness and instead objectify people.  When people sense they are being objectified, mostly they feel bad about it.  We want to be acknowledged as thinking, feeling, unique beings with agency.  Objectification, no matter the source or the rationale, is depressing and de-humanizing.  The Agile Manifesto implicitly recognizes this concept and asks us who follow the Manifesto to try to shift our value-focus.

There are many aspects to this concept of humanizing work.  Some things that come to mind immediately include recognizing and encouraging people’s capacity for:

• creativity and innovation
• learning and problem-solving
• caring about others
• pride in work
• complementarity with others
• responsibility

Processes and Tools

This side of the value is also interesting.  Processes and tools do not have agency.  They do not improve on their own.  Instead, processes and tools only either remain the same or degrade.  Processes and tools are forces for stasis: they encourage maintenance of the status quo.  Only humans introduce new processes and tools.

Technologists live in a philosophical double-standard: we build processes and tools for others to use and which we frequently would not like used on ourselves.  (We will discuss the cases where me might both build and benefit from processes and tools in a bit.)  This is one of the challenges of the type of work we do in technology, but it also applies to many other types of work.  So how do we solve this conundrum?  I would assert that the principles of the Agile Manifesto and the various Agile methods and techniques are all answers to this question.  They show us possible ways to implement this value (and the others) without getting stuck in processes and tools.

Only humans introduce new processes and tools.

What are Processes Good For, What are Tools Good For?

Some processes are good.  Some amount of process is good.  How do we determine what is good?  Well, it largely depends on context.  Some examples:

If a close family member is living in a distant location then the advances in communication tools are extremely helpful: the telegraph, the telephone, the cell phone, email, Skype.  These tools create connections where otherwise there would be little or none.

If a great deal of data is created while running a marketing campaign and needs to be stored and manipulated, then computers are amazing tools for this.  Computers are much much better than human minds and manual record-keeping for this sort of work.

If you create a fantastic new soup, from scratch, for some special occasion and you want to remember how to make and even share how to make it with others, then you document the process in a recipe.

Context, Emphasis and Crisis

Context here is important.  The value of Individuals and Interactions over Processes and Tools is basically a statement that given the right circumstances we can use processes and tools, but that our default approach to work and problem-solving should be to focus on individuals and their interactions.  Depending on the state of your work environment this is easier or harder.

For example, a startup company founded by three long-time friends who have not yet employed anyone else is almost certainly going to solve most problems that come up through discussion amongst founders and through the development of their skills and capabilities.  As a company gets larger, however, there is pressure to adopt more and more processes and tools.  This pressure comes from a deep source: lack of trust.  At about 12 people, you reach the limit of the number of people you can have and still have anyone do anything (this limit is referred to obliquely in “The Wisdom of Teams” by Katzenbach and Smith).  After 12 people, it becomes harder to avoid role specialization and some basic forms of processes and tools.  In other words, bureaucracy starts growing as the organization grows.  Even at this size, however, it is still relatively easy to have a very strong emphasis on individuals and interactions.  There is another important limit: somewhere around 150 to 200 people, any hope of 100% mutual trust among the members of the organization is lost.  This is the point at which processes and tools “naturally” start to truly take over.  (This transition can happen even in much smaller organizations if the culture does not emphasize trust-based interactions.)

In small trust-based organizations, crisis is usually addressed by the mechanisms of mutual respect, skill development, informal agreements, and strengthening the interactions between people.  In a large organization with low trust, crisis is almost always addressed by the creation of new bureaucracy: sign-offs, audits, traceability, procedures, policies, processes and tools.

The true test of the an organization’s commitment to the first value of the Agile Manifesto is, therefore, how it responds to crisis.  When someone makes a mistake, can we help them develop the skill and the support networks to avoid the mistake in the future?  Or do we put in place even more restrictive constraints on what that person does and how they do it?

In a large organization with low trust, crisis is almost always addressed by the creation of new bureaucracy.

Beyond IT and High-Tech

For now, all that needs to be said is that this particular value of the Agile Manifesto does not in any way directly refer to software or software development.  As such, it is pretty easy to see how it could be applied in many other types of work.  However, there are some types of work where processes and tools really do take precedence over individuals and interactions.  If we want to apply the concepts of Agile universally (or near-universally), we have to examine some of these exceptions.  I will leave that for a future essay.

In the next few articles, I will continue to look in-depth at each of the values of the Agile Manifesto.  If you missed the first essay in this series, please check it out here: The Agile Manifesto – Essay 1: Value and Values.

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# Best Agile Advice Articles – Ten Year Anniversary!

Agile Advice was started in 2005.  In ten years, we have published over 850 articles (an average of just about 2 per week!).  Here are some collections of the ten “best” articles.  I hope you enjoy looking back at (or discovering for the first time!) some of the things that have made this such a great joy for me.

Ten Most Popular Agile Advice Articles

1. How Two Hours Can Waste Two Weeks (75,000+ visits)
2. The Seven Core Practices of Agile Work (25,000+ visits)
3. Eight Barriers to Effective Listening (17,000+ visits)
4. Seven Essential Teamwork Skills (17,000+ visits)
5. 24 Common Scrum Pitfalls Summarized (15,000+ visits)
6. Mentoring and Coaching: What is the Difference? (14,000+ visits)
7. Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique (14,000+ visits)
8. The Pros and Cons of Short Iterations (13,000+ visits)
9. Three Concepts of Value Stream Mapping (13,000+ visits)
10. Agile Work and the PMBoK Definition of Project (11,000+ visits)

Ten Most Commented Upon Agile Advice Articles

1. 24 Common Scrum Pitfalls Summarized (19 comments)
2. Agile Becomes Easier with Useful Tools (12 comments)
3. Important Words about Scrum and Tools (9 comments)
4. The Skills Matrix and Performance Evaluation on Agile Teams (9 comments)
5. The Definition of Done is Badly Named (8 comments)
6. How Two Hours Can Waste Two Weeks (7 comments)
7. Agile is Not Communism (7 comments)
8. Agile Tools vs. Agile Books (6 comments)
9. The Decline and Fall of Agile and How Scrum Makes it Hurt More (5 comments)
10. The Planning Game: an Estimation Method for Agile Teams (5 comments)

I also want to acknowledge that there are a number of other contributors to Agile Advice besides me (Mishkin).  These contributors are all experts, all have great experiences, and all are fantastic people to know.  I’m grateful for their contributions since they have all made Agile Advice a better place to browse!

Five Most Frequent Contributors (of Articles, besides Mishkin)

1. Paul Heidema (34 articles)
2. Travis Birch (24 articles)
3. Christian Gruber (19 articles)
4. Mike Caspar (16 articles)
5. Shabnam Tashakour (13 articles)

Plans for the Future – Five Top Ideas for Series

1. Essays on each of the Values and Principles of the Agile Manifesto
2. Summary articles of several Agile methods including Scrum, OpenAgile, Kanban, Crystal, XP, and others
3. Real Agility Program case studies
4. Reviews of other scaling / enterprise Agile frameworks such as Disciplined Agile Delivery, Large Scale Scrum, Enterprise Scrum
5. New guest articles from thought and practice leaders.

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# Agile Manifesto and Enterprise – Rant and Rave (Session Proposal)

I’ve proposed a session called “Agile Manifesto and Enterprise – Rant and Rave” for the Toronto Agile Community’s conference “Toronto Agile and Software“.  The session is based loosely on my earlier article “The Agile Framework: Agile Values and Principles, The Agile Toolkit, The Agile Organization“, as well as some of the things that I do in the 2nd day of my Certified Scrum Master training session.  If you are thinking of coming to the conference, I would greatly appreciate your votes or feedback on my session proposal!

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# The Agile Framework: Agile Values and Principles, The Agile Toolkit, The Agile Organization

When I am speaking with executives, ScrumMasters and other leaders of change in organizations, I often present a simple 3-layer model to understand the relationship between the various moving parts in the Agile Framework:

1. The Agile Values and Principles – These describe the culture and, in the Agile Manifesto, are the definition of the word “Agile” as applied to software development. I didn’t write the Agile Manifesto so I don’t get to re-define the word Agile.  To give an example: in the manifesto it says “The best architectures, requirements and designs emerge out of self-organizing teams.”  As a former enterprise architect at Charles Schwab, I struggled with what I saw as incredibly wasteful up-front architectural activities when I knew that developers would (sometimes) ignore my glorious ivory-tower plans!  Therefore, if you are still doing up-front architecture and forcing your teams to comply to that architecture, you aren’t Agile.  Therefore, as an individual, a team or an organization, you need to make a conscious decision to “BE” Agile or not… and if you decide not, then please don’t call yourselves Agile.
2. The Agile Toolkit – There are many hundreds of distinct tools in the Agile toolkit including Scrum, OpenAgile and other “large” Agile methods, as well as the Planning Game, Product Box, Test-Driven Development and other “small” Agile techniques.  Any group of people trying to BE Agile, will need to use dozens or even hundreds of different Agile tools.  I call them tools because the analogy with construction tools is a very good one.  Scrum is like a hammer.  But you can’t do much with just a hammer.  Scrum is a great, simple tool.  But you always need other tools as well to actually get stuff done.  All the tools in the Agile Toolkit are compatible with the Agile Values and Principles.  Even so, it is possible to use the Agile Tools without being Agile.  A Scrum team that never gets together face-to-face is not an Agile team: “The most efficient and effective method of conveying information to and within a development team is face-to-face conversation.”  (Video conferencing doesn’t count.)
3. The Agile Organization – When you start using a tool, there is a learning period.  We start by being conscious of our incompetence and as we persist, we become competent… but it isn’t natural or habitual yet.  Eventually, with continued use, we become unconscious of the tool.  IDE’s and version control are like this in most organizations: we don’t even think about them!  But getting through that initial stage requires us to change; to develop new skills.  This process usually requires discomfort or pain (including psychological pain).  An organization attempting to BE Agile and to use many of the tools in the Agile Toolkit will need to make many changes and often these will be difficult.  For example, incorporating the Product Owner role from Scrum into your organization requires new role definitions, new performance evaluation practices and criteria, new compensation systems, new communication and reporting mechanisms, new authority and accountability processes, etc. etc.  All of the changes required are about creating Enterprise Agility throughout the whole organization, beyond just software or IT.  These extensive changes are often started in a very ad hoc manner, but at some point they need to become systematic.  This is an important decision point for executive management: are we going to be Pragmatic about our Enterprise Agile adoption, or are we going to be Transformative about our Enterprise Agile adoption.

All of this is summarized in this graphic:

The Agile Framework [PDF]

I sometimes also call this the “Agile Ecosystem” since it is a constantly evolving set of ideas (processes, tools, resources) that does not have a clearly defined boundary.  For example, the technique of Value Stream Mapping comes from Lean manufacturing but has also be broadly adopted by Agile practitioners.

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# Dependecy Injection on J2ME/CLDC devices.

This post is a little geeky and technical and product-related for AgileAdvice, and is a shameless self-promotion. Nevertheless, since testability, test-driven-development, and incremental design are non-exclusive sub-topics of Agile, I though I’d report this here anyway.

Many developers use the Dependency Injection and Inversion of Control (IoC) patterns through such IoC containers as Spring, Hivemind, Picocontainer, and others. They have all sorts of benefits to testability, flexibility, etc. that I won’t repeat here, but can be read about here, here, and here. A great summary of the history of “IoC” can be found here. J2ME developers, however, especially those on limited devices that use the CLDC configuration of J2ME, cannot use the substantial number of IoC/DI containers out there, because they nearly all rely on reflection. These also often make use of APIs not present in the CLDC – APIs which could not easily be added. Lastly there’s a tendency among developers of “embedded software” to be very suspicious of complexity.

In working out some examples of DI as part of a testability workshop at one of my clients, I whipped up a quick DI container, and being the freak that I am, hardened it until it was suitable for production, because I hate half-finished products. So allow me to introduce the Israfil Micro Container. (That is, the Container from the Israfil Micro project). As I mention in the docs, “FemtoContainer” just was too ridiculous, and this container is smaller than pico-container. The project is BSD licensed, and hosted on googlecode, so source is freely available and there’s an issue/feature tracker, yadda yadda.

Essentially I believe that people working on cellphones and set-top boxes shouldn’t be constrained out of some basic software design approaches – you just have to bend the design approach to fit the environment. So hopefully this is of use to more than one of my clients. It currently supports an auto-wiring registration, delayed object creation (until first need), and forthcoming are some basic lifecycle support, and a few other nicities. It does not use reflection (you use a little adapter for object creation instead), and performs quicker than pico-container. Low, low overhead. It’s also less than 10 classes and interfaces (including the two classes in the util project). It’s built with Maven2, so you can use it in any Maven2-built project with ease, but of course you can always also just download the jar (and the required util jar too). Enjoy…

P.S. There are a few other bits on googlecode that I’m working on in the micro-zone. Some minimalist backports of some of java.lang.concurrency (just the locks), as well as some of the java.util.Collections stuff. Not finished, but also part of the googlecode project.

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# Agile Tools vs. Agile Books

I have been working with Agile for a few months. At Berteig Consulting we are using OpenAgile to run our small business. As such we try to use various tools to make our life easier. I have already mentioned that we use CardMeeting for our cycles and tasks. I have tried using PlanningPoker for online estimation. It seems useful, but maybe our team is too small to make great use of it. I am also looking for other ways to manage the reflections and learning from each cycle.

I have received an email from David Wolrich of CardMeeting that states: “Anyways, I rely on the trickle of news from legitimate organizations like yours to let users know that CardMeeting is still around, that I am still adding features, and to generate interest; thanks again.” So maybe some of you could try it and give him a shout. Much like other free applications on the net such as Drupal and Neo Office this one could become more robust and useful.

I am wondering if I am spending too much time on tools and not enough reading and researching Agile methods. I am enjoying reading about Agile success stories. Anybody know of small businesses that have documented or written about achieving success in Agile? Is there an Agile bible or maybe a book about the best ways to succeed using Agile?

So this is the question that I am wondering: Are tools better than books when it comes to Agile?

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# The Scrum Study Guide is now Available… Really!!!

Scrum Study Guide, “The Best Tool for New ScrumMasters”, is now available at Scrum Study Guide. This guide is designed to be an editable tool for helping ScrumMasters do their jobs effectively. With the Scrum Study Guide you are able to keep track of the rules of Scrum, to keep structured notes on your own job as the ScrumMaster, to maintain a list of online reference material, to assess the progress of your team, and to organize the obstacles you are working on.Â  It also contains a wealth of reference information for learning along the way.

This is the project I’ve been working on for the last several months that has reduced my output here on Agile Advice.Â  It represents a huge investment of my time as well as several other people who have assisted me in this including Paul Heidema and Garry Berteig.Â  Purchasing the Scrum Study Guide, aside from its usefulness as a tool itself, will also give you substantial discounts on other services offered by Berteig Consulting Inc.Â  Finally, if you like it, you can help to share it by letting us know who should get a discount on their purchase of the Scrum Study Guide.Â  Enjoy!

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# Agile becomes Easier with Useful Tools

For the last 3 months I have been lucky to work with tools and in an environment that is agile. My job requires lots of small projects and tasks and my job title is clear but my work is every changing. I like new challenges and creative tasks.

Recently our small team has been using http://cardmeeting.com/ an online tool to add ideas, set up tasks, and keep track of what the whole is doing and what still needs to be done.

I am looking for more tools to make our agile practices more streamlined and efficient. Any suggestions or ideas?

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May 12
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
May 12
2023
Kanban for Scrum Masters (ML-KSM)
Online
C\$495.00
May 16
2023
Kanban for Product Owners (ML-KPO)
Online
C\$495.00
May 17
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
May 19
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
May 19
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
May 26
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
May 26
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 9
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 9
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 16
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 16
2023
Kanban for Scrum Masters (ML-KSM)
Online
C\$495.00
Jun 20
2023
Kanban for Product Owners (ML-KPO)
Online
C\$495.00
Jun 21
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 23
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 23
2023
Real Agility™ Team Performance Coaching with BERTEIG (COACHING-TPC)
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 30
2023
Real Agility™ Real Agility™ Ask Me Anything / Coaching
Online
C\$750.00
Jun 30
2023